Free Agent Stock Watch: Southwest Division
For the rest of the regular season and postseason, Hoops Rumors is taking a closer squint at players who will be free agents or could wilt self-ruling teachers during the 2023 offseason. We consider whether their stock is rising or falling due to their performance and other factors. Today, we’re focusing on a handful of Southwest players.
Christian Wood, F/C, Mavericks
- 2022/23: $14.32MM
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Neutral
2022/23 has been a roller coaster season for Wood, whom the Mavs uninventive in the offseason for their 2022 first-round pick and expiring contracts. He started the season coming off the seat and was providing quality offensive production, averaging 17.2 PPG and 7.8 RPG on .550/.402/.688 shooting through 26 games (26.3 MPG).
A handful of days without Maxi Kleber tore his hamstring, Wood was inserted into the starting lineup, averaging 20.3 PPG, 9.4 RPG and 2.4 BPG on .516/.367/.814 shooting in 16 games (33.4 MPG). The team went 9-7 during that span, but unfortunately Wood sustained a fractured left thumb that sidelined him for eight games.
In 12 games since he returned from injury, Wood has seen his role cut when significantly, averaging 13.1 PPG and 5.2 RPG on .457/.298/.860 shooting in 18.9 minutes per contest. Defensive concerns could be the main culprit, though I haven’t seen that publicly stated as of late.
The 27-year-old heard his name pop up in both extension and trade rumors leading up to the February 9 deadline, but neither came to fruition. He remains eligible for a four-year, $77MM extension until June 30, though that appears increasingly unlikely unless he plays a major role in a deep postseason run.
Kenyon Martin Jr., F, Rockets
- 2022/23: $1.78MM
- 2023/24: $1.93MM team option
- Stock: Up
The No. 52 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Martin is averaging career highs with 12.0 PPG and 5.6 RPG while shooting a career-best 56.2% from the field through 65 games (26.9 MPG). The upper flier is flipside player who saw his name mentioned in trade rumors early in the season, but obviously Houston decided to alimony him.
Considering his team option for next season is only $1.93MM, it seems unlikely that the 22-year-old would enter self-ruling agency. So why is he on this list?
As our Luke Adams detailed last month, if the Rockets exercise their option for ‘23/24, Martin would wilt an unrestricted self-ruling wage-earner in 2024. However, if they ripen it, he would be a restricted self-ruling wage-earner this summer, giving Houston increasingly control. That’s what happened last summer with Martin’s teammate, Jae’Sean Tate.
Martin has appeared in every game this season for the Rockets, including 24 subsequent starts (32 total). If he starts nine of Houston’s 17 remaining games, he would reach the starter criteria and increase his qualifying offer to $5,216,324.
Dillon Brooks, G/F, Grizzlies
- 2022/23: $11.4MM
- 2023/24: UFA
- Stock: Down
Brooks has unchangingly faced criticism for his poor shot selection. However, he has never been this inefficient — his 48.3% true shooting percentage is the second-worst mark in the NBA among 197 qualifying players, only superiority of Detroit’s Killian Hayes (44.7%).
There isn’t one particularly zone to point to, considering he’s struggling from everywhere: 51.6% at the rim (ninth percentile), 38.3% from mid-range (26th percentile), and 31.9% from three-point range (24th percentile), per DunksAndThrees.com.
On the other hand, Brooks is an outstanding defensive player who is tasked with guarding the league’s weightier perimeter scorers. The Grizzlies have been largest with him on the magistrate in each of the past three seasons.
For largest or worse, a big part of the team’s identity is tied to Brooks’ unwary vein and confidence. At 27 years old, he’s theoretically in the middle of his prime. He will get a raise on his current deal, but he hasn’t helped himself on the offensive end of the court.
Tre Jones, G, Spurs
- 2022/23: $1.78MM
- 2023/24: RFA ($5.22MM qualifying offer)
- Stock: Up
The No. 41 overall pick of the 2020 draft, Jones rarely saw the magistrate in his first season, seeming in 37 games with an stereotype of 7.3 MPG. He saw increasingly whoopee last season, but he was still limited to a reserve role, seeming in 69 games with averages of 6.0 PPG and 3.4 APG in 16.6 MPG.
After trading yonder Dejounte Murray in the offseason, San Antonio had a glaring slum at point guard. Jones has filled that void, averaging career highs in points (12.5), rebounds (3.6), assists (6.2), steals (1.3) and minutes (29.1) per game.
While he has struggled with scoring efficiency (51.2% TS, ninth-worst in the league among qualifying players), Jones does a very good job of taking superintendency of the wittiness (3.67-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), he’s only 23 years old, and he’s on a minimum contract. He has certainly outplayed that deal.
Jones has once met the starter criteria, which increased the value of his qualifying offer to $5,216,324. There’s an spanking-new endangerment the Spurs proffer that offer to him and make him a restricted self-ruling agent.
Jaxson Hayes, F/C, Pelicans
- 2022/23: $6.8MM
- 2023/24: RFA ($7.74MM qualifying offer)
- Stock: Down
A former lottery pick (No. 8 overall in 2019), Hayes has yet to live up to his typhoon status. He has only appeared in 38 games this season with a career-low 13.6 minutes per night, a strong sign that the Pelicans don’t view him as a long-term fit on the roster.
Hayes won’t turn 23 until May, so he has time to possibly turn his career around. He is 6’11” and is a strong run-and-jump athlete. His shot isn’t wrenched by any ways – he’s at 72.0% from the line for his career, a solid mark for a big man.
He just looks lost on the magistrate way too often, commonly making careless, head-scratching mistakes at inopportune times, things that momentum coaches crazy. The odds of New Orleans extending Hayes a $7,744,600 qualifying offer to make him a restricted self-ruling wage-earner are very low, so he will likely hit unrestricted self-ruling organ this summer.
